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Social commentary in the Hongkong on 1 January,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and China's current many economic problems and excess liquidity has a certain relationship. Twenty-first Century economic report recently published the central bank anti-money laundering center chief analyst Chai Qingshan article said, excess liquidity, a flood of dollars, the United States and oil trade and fiscal deficits, the long-term zero interest rates and other international situation; on the other hand, enterprises and residents of wealth long-term precipitation,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], and China's trade surplus is too large,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], the international balance of payments serious imbalance and caused by the strong appreciation of the renminbi is expected to have a great relationship.

exchange rate has fallen into predicament

article, the RMB appreciation pressure brought about by the double surplus, China is currently taken by the floating gradually rise slightly strategy, but this strategy for the central bank monetary policy has brought about great challenges: due to the appreciation of the renminbi in the direction and magnitude of the basic can judge, therefore, selling foreign exchange, purchase of currency risk is very low, but the remittance income may be locked. This will lead to action the country's enterprises, residents and financial institutions in the settlement and sale of foreign exchange aspects are highly consistent, namely the overwhelmingly foreign exchange sales,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], postpone the purchase, borrowing foreign debt, holdings of Renminbi assets, so that the net purchase Party since 2003, only the central bank a.

the one-sided, clear psychological expectations and cause for foreign exchange gains,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], to avoid exchange rate risk funds,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], in fact than the media hype the so-called hot money, much greater impact on the international balance of payments surplus and liquidity. Facts have proved that a modest appreciation, not only cannot constrain trade surplus, it will stimulate more capital inflows. Facing the continuous expansion of trade and international payments surplus, the central bank in the foreign exchange to a large amount of base money, although part of the money has been the central bank notes to hedge,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], but a large amount of money in the heightened liquidity surplus phenomenon,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], a series of economic problems easily lead to inflation and asset prices.

but if we take a step in a sharp appreciation of the strategy is the same,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], there's no telling consequences. In the case of Japan, the yen every 1985-1989 years are large,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], basically reached the annual rose by 20%-30%. Historical proof, Japan can not solve the trade surplus, appreciation is expected to continue to expand and the inflow of funds into the problem. At that time,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], although the yen rise every year to the United States government requirements, but every time a substantial appreciation of the United States of America in the exchange rate, the price will continue to put forward, and a corresponding increase,[link widoczny dla zalogowanych], so that the yen's rise has been unable to fill the American politicians, business. If China under the pressure of the United States will be a substantial appreciation of the RMB, may also fall into the predicament and Japan as like as two peas.

thus, whether it is a modest appreciation of the yuan or a sharp appreciation of the exchange rate policy, alone can not solve the expected appreciation, capital inflows and excess liquidity. To release from the issue of RMB exchange rate, we must promote the exchange rate formation mechanism reform at the same time, pay more attention to the imbalance of economic structure, pay more attention to the causes of the trade surplus, and from the exchange rate to >相关的主题文章：


[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]

[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]

[link widoczny dla zalogowanych]


“I am no prophet, but the feeling of his doctors and his sons ... is that there has been a change for the worse,” Sheba director Zeev Rotstein told reporters.
Rotstein, in the first official medical statement on Sharon’s condition after reports on Wednesday that he had suffered a kidney malfunction, said doctors expect a deterioration in several life-sustaining organs.